The University of North Carolina Tomorrow Commission, created in March 2007, won’t report formally until January 2008, but its probable goals are already discernible. The theme of its inquiry seems to be that the University of North Carolina of the future will serve a rapidly growing population with changing demographics and will face a rapidly evolving economy.
To contend with these changes, the commission is seeking ways in which the university system can move forward technically, become more fully integrated with businesses, communities, and other educational systems, create a more engaged faculty, and address current weaknesses such as the teaching of so-called “soft skills.”
UNC Tomorrow was commissioned by the UNC Board of Governors “to determine how the 16-campus system can best meet the needs of North Carolina and its people over the next 20 years.” It is comprised of 25 business, community, and academic leaders. The process so far has produced exploratory studies by the commission’s Scholars Council and has included a tour of all sixteen campuses in the UNC system and several brainstorming workshops conducted by the Institute for Emerging Ideas, a think tank associated with N.C. State. The second phase began on September 10 with the first of twelve “townhall”-style Regional Listening meetings with citizens and local officials at different locations around the state.
The commission’s inclusive, multi-faceted process works against a narrow focus and could even lead to “mission creep” as it seeks to offer something to everybody. With so much emphasis by the commission on cooperation with business and driving economic growth as well as attracting minorities to higher education, this investigation might end up being more about a statewide economic development plan, an affirmative action program, and an expansion of the UNC bureaucracy into many new arenas than about student education per se.
Demographic and economic studies have driven the initial phase of the commission’s work. By 2017, enrollment in the system’s 16 colleges is projected to reach nearly 300,000, compared with a current enrollment of 202,381. The demands of the state economy are expected to mirror that growth, eventually requiring 15,000 more college graduates and 19,000 more community college graduates per year than currently complete their degrees, according to a report by N.C. State economics professor and Scholars Council member Michael Walden.
Some of the increase in expected demand for graduates is due to projected changes in the state’s labor force. Walden predicts that the percentage of workers with at least a two-year degree will increase from 24.6 percent in 2007 to 38.1 percent in 2017.
Given these demographics, a likely recommendation from the commission will be increased state spending on higher education. The annual capital spending budget for UNC already increased 5.1 percent from last year. UNC President Erskine Bowles’ stated in March, however, that simply making the system bigger will no longer yield the same results.
The demand for more college graduates might be partially met by improving the state’s high school graduation rate, thereby expanding the pool of potential college students, according to Dennis Jones, an educational consultant speaking at an Emerging Ideas workshop. This assumption might not hold under closer scrutiny, however. Increasing the high school graduation rate is not the same as motivating those graduates to complete a more rigorous college program.
As for the commission’s interest in connectivity between private business and the university, a significant amount already exists. The Small Business and Technology Development Center is a university-based consulting team that provides services to entrepreneurs. The Industrial Extension Service consults primarily with manufacturing and processing companies, while the N.C. Cooperative Extension offers expertise in agriculture, resource extraction, and the environment. The commission has also suggested that work-study programs and internships for students and faculty will enhance cooperation.
Research programs and facilities are also likely to receive recommendations for increased funding because of the widely held assumption that university research drives innovation. Ironically, university research accounts for only two to four percent of patents issued, according to the report on research and technology prepared by Scholars Council members Ken Harewood of N.C. Central University and Ruben Carbonell of N.C. State.
Another priority of the commission, it appears, is finding new methods to teach “soft skills.” These are defined as skills that will cross over to any professional level job. They include communication skills, the ability to analyze and solve problems, ethics, the ability to work in groups, leadership skills, etc.
The commission has also expressed a need to provide access to higher education for a broader spectrum of North Carolina residents. This has been a concern for some time. Already, the state’s educational grants have been increased, and the financial responsibility on families of modest means for higher education has been significantly reduced.
Given the priorities expressed at this stage in the UNC Commission’s deliberations, we can predict that it will not only push for greater access to higher education but also to expand the role of the university beyond its traditional spheres of activity. It is likely to urge closer connections with high schools, businesses, and other schools, both within the UNC system and nationally and internationally. Additional priorities will possibly be established from public input gathered during the Regional Listening meetings due to end in mid-October.
Editor’s Note: Jay Schalin is a writer/researcher for the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy in Raleigh.