GREENVILLE – Enrollment across the University of North Carolina could reach 300,000 by 2017, according to projections presented during a Thursday policy meeting.
The projections also point to a growing number of Hispanic students from North Carolina who will seek higher education. UNC leaders say if that occurs, a number of campuses will not have a majority of one race or ethnic group.
UNC leaders presented the growth projections as a precursor to ongoing discussions about the system’s future and how to meet educational demands. The Board of Governors has authorized an initiative called the University of North Carolina Tomorrow, headed by Norma Mills, who previously has served as Senate Pro Tem Marc Basnight’s Chief of Staff. That initiative will be guided by a blue-ribbon commission, aided by a scholars’ panel made up of faculty members from the UNC system. The point of the initiative is to consider how the UNC system can best meet the needs of the state.
Mills as well as UNC President Erskine Bowles highlighted the importance of the enrollment projections during policy meetings here at East Carolina University. The Board of Governors is meeting at ECU to celebrate the school’s 100th anniversary.
The projections are based on three models that forecast future university system students . All three models consistently show UNC escalating to nearly 300,000 in enrollment by 2017. UNC leaders indicated that these were conservative estimates. The numbers could be larger, especially if higher proportions of high school graduates go to college.
Statewide, North Carolina is expected to see a 35.7 percent increase in high school graduates between 2007-08 (83,234 graduates) and 2017-2018 (112,982). Many of those students will remain in the state instead of going to out-of-state institutions, increasing the enrollment demands on both state and private institutions.
UNC leaders have begun preliminary discussions with chancellors to determine if campuses could meet the increase enrollment with current facilities. N.C. State, if the projections hold, could have more than 40,000 students. For comparison purposes, the University of Texas-Austin has more than 49,000 students, including graduate students. Bowles said that online courses and branch campuses could be used to meet the projected enrollment growth.
Within the 10-year projections, the largest increase will be among the Hispanic community. The number of Hispanic high school graduates could increase by 489.3 percent, according to the projections. Current projects are for Hispanics to make up 4,438 of the state’s high school graduates in 2008 and 26,152 in 2018, a growth of nearly 22,000 students.
Each campus will see large increases of Hispanics in the future, according to the projections. For instance, Appalachian State will see a 666.9 percent increase in the Hispanic population on campus. Hispanics will make up 12,000 of the 19,000 expected growth in enrollment. Only Western Carolina will have a larger percentage increase in Hispanic students.
“That will change this university,” Bowles said.
According to Dr. Alan Mabe, vice president for academic planning, a major factor in the anticipated growth in the number of Hispanic high school graduates is high birth rates. Hispanics in North Carolina have nearly five children, on average, said Mabe, compared with approximately two children for whites and African-Americans. He noted, however, that the percentage of Hispanic high school graduates who go to college is low and has been declining. He said that at one time the rate was at 22 percent, but it is currently around 19 percent.
The projections do not separate illegal and legal residents in their student numbers, Mabe said. At present, students in the country illegally are not eligible to pay in-state tuition and cannot receive state or and federal financial aid assistance. But support for allowing illegal students to paying in-state tuition has been expressed in the North Carolina General Assembly in recent years. A bill currently in the legislature would not allow illegal residents to pay in-state tuition at community colleges.
UNC Board of Governors chairman Jim Phillips noted that the issue of illegal students and tuition is divisive in the General Assembly, saying there are passionate advocates on both sides of the issue. He said he is unsure whether UNC would take a position on it.
“It’s an issue we need to discuss and decide if we want to make a decision on,” Phillips said.