College Closures Are a Blessing in Disguise

The closure of more than 500 private, nonprofit, four-year educational institutions in the last 10 years—three times the rate of the previous decade—is widely seen as a catastrophe for the nation. Yet a closer look reveals it is anything but that.

Putting aside the unprecedented fiscal challenges brought about by the overall shrinking population of college-age students, the larger truth is that not everyone is college material. It takes a certain IQ to handle college-level work, despite exaggerated claims about the role that grit plays. It’s generally believed that an IQ of about 115 is necessary. The large number of freshmen who drop out each year serves as evidence that many are academically in over their heads.

Some institutions are colleges in name only, in fact little more than residential high schools. Such students would have been much better served if they had pursued a vocational curriculum and an apprenticeship. Instead, they were led to believe that, without a bachelor’s degree, their future was bleak. Even worse, some of the colleges they enrolled in were colleges in name only, in fact little more than residential high schools. As a result, such institutions’ closures were a blessing for students who would have been saddled with debt for a worthless degree.

Such institutions’ closures are a blessing for students who would have been saddled with debt for a worthless degree. The closures in question were partly due to Covid, but that masks a more fundamental reason: Americans have soured in their view of higher education. Last year’s much-remarked-upon Lumina-Gallup study found that fewer than half believe it is doing a good job. They question the overall value of a four-year degree. This skepticism has been slow in developing but is understandable in light of new realities. When most young people’s formal education ended with high-school graduation, anyone with a bachelor’s degree had a distinct leg up in finding and keeping a well-paying job. But today, the proliferation of colleges and myriad majors have created a totally different situation. In fact, “college graduates with poor academic performance, graduating in the bottom quartile of their class, earn roughly the same after graduation as high school graduates,” according to Restoring the Promise, by economist Richard Vedder.

That means that unless colleges can find a way to meet the unique needs and interests of today’s younger generation, they face an uphill battle in staying in business. Their job shouldn’t be to funnel as many high-school graduates as possible onto their campuses but instead to make college available only to those who have the demonstrated wherewithal to profit from the experience. So far, they have not been successful. It’s unlikely they ever will be as long as they persist in believing that college is for everyone (or in feigning that belief for financial purposes). When students learn they are ill-prepared to handle rigorous college-level material, they drop out, often with their self-esteem shattered or with heavy debt. Admitting unqualified students only sets such students up for failure. That should serve as a reality check for higher education, but it hasn’t.

The trouble is that college today is seen as an inalienable right for everyone, regardless of how qualified he or she is. That wasn’t always the case. Prior to the Servicemen’s Readjustment Act of 1944, better known as the GI Bill of Rights, college was almost always for the well-to-do, who were better prepared because of their backgrounds. In 1940, for example, less than five percent of those 25 and over had completed four years of college. The GI Bill made going to college normal, as seen by the 7.8 million World War II vets who took advantage of it. As Diane Ravitch wrote in The Troubled Crusade: American Education, 1945 to 1980, “the link between income and educational opportunity was broken.”

But what started as a way to make college unexceptional has turned into a trap for too many young people, who have been led falsely to believe that without a four-year degree they have a bleak future. As a result, the number of colleges multiplied even though they, too often, were indistinguishable from high schools. That led to the situation we have today, whereby students are being shortchanged. Tuition continues to rise with no end in sight. At the same time, students question whether what they are studying will pay off after graduation. They are often right to do so, because the number of graduates has increased faster than the number of jobs requiring a bachelor’s degree. As a result of this and the previously mentioned question of intelligence, many drop out, forcing less selective schools to close or merge with others.

Colleges have no incentive to change because of student-loan forgiveness and other political shenanigans. Colleges have no incentive to change because of student-loan forgiveness and other political shenanigans. If they were required to pay a portion of the loans for borrowers who default, their admissions departments would be differently motivated. Otherwise, colleges will continue to admit those with little chance of graduating. Change is further complicated by attempts to help the poor, even when that means lowering standards. Ironically, the percentage of the poor graduating from college has fallen even as tuition assistance has increased.

High-school counselors can play a crucial role by challenging the notion that college is the only option. Higher education is at an historic crossroads in this country. What was once seen as a ticket to the American dream has become an illusion for too many young people. With tuition and student debt continuing to climb, going down the same road is no longer an option. Whether we have the will as a nation to take the necessary steps to change is the question. One promising note is the belated movement to treat vocational education as an equally valid choice alongside four-year degrees. High-school counselors can play a crucial role in this regard by challenging the notion that college is the only option for most students. For example, they can educate their charges about the benefits of taking a gap year. In short, they need to align the interests and abilities of students with real-world possibilities to correct (or account for) the crisis of confidence in higher education. Unless they do, the 42 million adults who started college and never finished will be eclipsed by many millions more.

If reform ever comes, it will result in more colleges closing or merging. Rather than bemoan that result, we should accept it as a blessing for students who can then be better served by other means. John Keats said it best in 1965 in The Sheepskin Psychosis: “College is merely the most convenient place to learn how to learn. There is nothing here that cannot be acquired elsewhere than in college at various times of one’s life.” In short, we have been wildly oversold on the importance of college.

Walt Gardner was a lecturer in the UCLA Graduate School of Education.