North Carolina Has the Degrees, But What About the Paychecks?

The hot new words in higher education are educational attainment and career outcomes. Educational attainment is the raw share of adults who hold a degree or credential. Career outcomes or job outlooks are pretty self-explanatory. The Lumina Foundation’s new Credentials of Value data shows a sharp distinction between holding a degree and benefiting from one. 

Lumina Foundation’s annual A Stronger Nation report has long tracked the share of U.S. adults with a degree or credential beyond high school, a figure that rose from 39 percent in 2009 to nearly 55 percent by 2024. But of those credential-holders, how many are actually earning more because of it? This new framework defines economic payoff as earning at least 15 percent more than someone with only a high school diploma. It additionally sets the goal of having 75 percent of the U.S. labor force meet that bar by 2040.

The old way of measuring success does not take the whole picture into account. This study is important because the old way of measuring success does not take the whole picture into account. Graduation rates can be inflated, AI is taking jobs that were recently human-centered, and credential counts can be cluttered with certificates that lead nowhere. A reliable way to measure success is by paycheck. By using its measure of value to determine whether credential-holders are actually out-earning those who stopped at a high school diploma, Lumina has created a new standard. States like North Carolina should consider its findings. 

North Carolina is used to good press. Top-three business climate. Booming Research Triangle. A credential attainment rate that almost perfectly aligns with the national average. Things look solid. But Lumina’s Credentials of Value project isn’t interested in how things appear, only what’s in people’s bank accounts. 

In North Carolina, about 55.9 percent of adults have a post-high-school credential. In 2024, only 43.3 percent of those adults met or exceeded the wage benchmark—ranking North Carolina 23rd out of the states. This is 0.3 percentage points lower than the national average. 

Twenty-third is not terrible, but it’s not what one would expect from a state as well-known for its business opportunities and career outlook as North Carolina. New graduates move from all over the country to Charlotte and Raleigh chasing jobs, so why isn’t the state ranked higher? 

Why isn’t the state ranked higher?  The data seem to suggest that the state is producing credentialed workers, but isn’t consistently producing credentialed workers who see a financial return. More than half of associate degree holders and nearly half of certification holders in North Carolina are earning below the benchmark. To be fair, associate degrees and certificates are shorter and cheaper than a four-year degree. 

Of bachelor’s degrees, 69 percent earn at or above the benchmark, and those with a graduate or professional degree earn 80 percent above the benchmark. These aren’t bad numbers by any means. But, when it comes to pay outlook, certifications aren’t that far behind a bachelor’s degree. For someone who doesn’t want to take on four years of debt, that might be a more prudent option. A certification can take months instead of years and cost tens or even hundreds of thousands less. 

Compared to other states, North Carolina is in the middle ground. Massachusetts is at 52.5 percent, and Nevada is at 33.6 percent in terms of credential value. Massachusetts has top universities and high-paying industries: credentials there actually open doors. Nevada has plenty of jobs, but they’re mostly in casinos and hotels, where a degree doesn’t significantly boost one’s salary. At 43.3 percent, North Carolina sits right in the middle, which sounds fine, but the state has the resources and reputation to be closer to Massachusetts than Nevada. 

Lumina’s 2040 goal is for 75 percent of the U.S. labor force to hold a valuable credential. That’s a 31.7 percentage point gap from where North Carolina stands today. North Carolina has all the ingredients: the recipe just needs to go above average. With AI and changing technology, the state must prioritize producing high-value degrees. Fourteen years does not leave much wiggle room. 

Reagan Allen is the North Carolina reporter for the James G. Martin Center for Academic Renewal.